Key Takeaways
After 26 consecutive quarters of growth, Singapore's HDB resale market recorded its first price decline since Q4 2018. The HDB Resale Price Index (RPI) fell 0.9% quarter-on-quarter in Q1 2026, and transaction volumes dropped 11% year-on-year to roughly 6,200 deals.
This doesn't mean a crash is coming. But for homeowners weighing whether to sell now or wait, the shift in market dynamics matters. Here's a clear-eyed breakdown of what the data shows.
What Happened to HDB Resale Prices in Q1 2026?
The HDB Resale Price Index (RPI) fell from 193.4 in Q4 2025 to 191.7 in Q1 2026 — a decline of 0.9%. This ends a run of appreciation that pushed resale prices up nearly 55% from their pandemic-era trough in 2020.
The price softening was not uniform across flat types:
| Flat Type | Q1 2026 change | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| 3-Room | -1.4% | Smallest units hit hardest; oversupply of smaller BTO completions |
| 4-Room | -0.7% | Still the anchor of the market; most liquid segment |
| 5-Room | -0.5% | Modest dip; remained popular with upgraders |
| Executive | -0.3% | Well-supported by demand from growing families |
The bottom line: Price declines are real but modest. The market is correcting from elevated levels, not collapsing.
Why Did HDB Resale Prices Fall?
Cooling Measures Are Biting
In November 2025, the government raised the Additional Buyer's Stamp Duty (ABSD) for second-property purchases and tightened the Total Debt Servicing Ratio (TDSR) framework. The new rules made it harder for existing homeowners to simultaneously service two mortgages during an upgrade transition, reducing demand from that segment.
Interest Rates Remain Elevated
The 3-month SORA stayed near 3.5% through Q1 2026. Monthly mortgage repayments on a $500,000 HDB loan at prevailing rates are roughly $2,400 — a meaningful affordability squeeze for first-time buyers stretching their budgets.
BTO Supply Is Catching Up
A large tranche of BTO flats from the 2021–2022 application cycles reached their Minimum Occupation Period (MOP) in late 2025, releasing considerable supply into the resale market. This structural increase in available units eased competition among buyers.
Buyer Sentiment Has Moderated
After years of FOMO-driven buying, purchasers are no longer rushing. Viewings-to-offer ratios have extended, and Cash Over Valuation (COV) premiums — which averaged $30,000–$50,000 in peak 2022–2023 — have largely disappeared, with some transactions now closing at or below HDB valuation.
Thinking of selling your HDB? Get a free home valuation report to understand your property's estimated current market value based on recent comparable transactions near you.
Which Towns Performed Best?
Not all estates are softening equally. Mature towns with strong MRT connectivity and established amenities continued to command resilient demand.
Top Performing Estates (Q1 2026)
Bishan saw the lowest price decline among mature HDB towns, with 4-room resale flats averaging $780,000–$850,000. Its central location and proximity to top schools kept buyer demand steady.
Toa Payoh remained well-supported, with prices broadly flat quarter-on-quarter. The recently completed Toa Payoh Integrated Development hub boosted the estate's appeal.
Queenstown continued to attract buyers willing to pay a premium for proximity to the CBD. 4-room flats regularly transacted above $900,000.
Under Pressure
Non-mature towns in the north and west — particularly Woodlands, Jurong West, and Choa Chu Kang — saw more pronounced price softening of 1.5%–2.0% quarter-on-quarter, reflecting weaker demand and the impact of new BTO supply entering those corridors.
How Does This Compare to Previous Downturns?
Context matters. The Q1 2026 decline is mild compared to earlier corrections:
- 2013–2019 cooling cycle: RPI fell ~12% over six years following the introduction of the Total Debt Servicing Ratio (TDSR) framework.
- COVID dip (2020): RPI fell just 0.2% before recovering sharply.
- Current correction: Analysts expect a total peak-to-trough decline of 3%–5% over 2026, significantly smaller than the multi-year 2013–2019 cycle.
The key difference is structural demand. Singapore's resident population continues to grow, HDB MOP policies limit speculative flipping, and the government has demonstrated willingness to calibrate cooling measures if the market overshoots to the downside.
What Does This Mean If You're Thinking of Selling?
The Case for Selling Now
- You're still near the peak. Prices remain roughly 50% above 2020 lows. Waiting for a further recovery may mean waiting several years.
- Fewer competing buyers. If you hold out, you may face a market with more supply and fewer urgently motivated buyers.
- Upgrading opportunity. If you're selling to upgrade to a private property, private prices have also softened, improving your purchasing power on the other side.
The Case for Waiting
- Rate cuts are coming. If SORA falls by 100bps in H2 2026 as some analysts forecast, affordability improves for buyers, which could support a mild price rebound.
- Scarcity in your estate matters. If your block, facing, or floor is genuinely scarce, time plays in your favour regardless of the index.
- Transaction costs are high. Seller's Stamp Duty (SSD) applies if you sell within 3 years of purchase. Calculate your SSD here.
Rent vs. Sell? If you're unsure whether to sell your HDB now or hold and rent it out, use our Rent vs. Sell calculator for a personalised 5-year financial comparison.
Frequently Asked Questions
Will HDB resale prices keep falling in 2026?
Most analysts expect a further modest easing of 2%–4% through H2 2026 before prices stabilise. A sharp or sustained crash is unlikely given strong underlying demand from first-time buyers and limited speculative activity in the HDB market.
Is now a good time to buy an HDB resale flat?
For genuine owner-occupiers, the moderation in prices removes some of the urgency that characterised 2021–2023. You're now more likely to buy without excessive COV, and can negotiate from a stronger position. However, if rates remain high, ensure your loan servicing ratio leaves buffer.
Does the price decline affect my HDB valuation?
HDB conducts its own valuations based on recent comparable transactions in your estate. If nearby units have transacted at lower prices, your valuation may be lower than it would have been in 2024–2025. Get an estimated current valuation here before listing.
What happened to COV in Q1 2026?
Cash Over Valuation (COV) — the amount buyers pay above HDB's assessed value — has dropped significantly. In Q1 2026, the median COV for 4-room flats was approximately $8,000, down from peaks of $40,000+ in 2022.
The Bottom Line
Singapore's HDB resale market is undergoing a healthy, measured correction after years of strong appreciation. The 0.9% decline in Q1 2026 is the start of a normalisation, not a crisis. If you are planning to sell, the fundamentals remain broadly supportive — particularly in mature, well-connected estates.
The most important step before listing is getting an accurate picture of what your specific flat is worth in the current market. Get your free HomeWorth valuation report to understand your property's estimated value based on recent transactions near you.